Another poker post, I’m afraid. As I said in the last one, I’m seeing how it feels to write a poker blog and testing it out on here.
In my last post I stated that the most important skill in poker is choosing the right game. A close second would have to be knowing when to leave it. I failed to heed my adult inner voice and stand up at the right time last night, and lost a bit because of that. I’m still annoyed with myself.
To my ex, not a fan of my poker playing, the answer was simple.
“Come home as soon as you’re ahead!” she’d say.
To a player, it’s not as simple as that. Suppose I am one of six players buying in for £100* at the start of a game and I run it up to £400. Should I leave? In poker, chips are power and there are moves open to the player with the big stack that are not open to those who still only have the £100. Is this an opportunity to boss the game, play aggressively and turn it into £800 or more? Or is it better to bank the £300 win and fight again another day?
The answer is complex and something I too often get wrong. My decision too often lacks the hard-nosed situation analysis, combined with analytical self-awareness that are the basis of winning poker. Yes, poker’s a game, but if you can’t base your decisions on those two things, the money is going to go.
So let’s imagine it’s late in the evening. I have managed to get to that £400 in a £100 buy in game. As the song says: “Should I stay or should I go?”
How much have I bought in for?
If I am still working with the original £100 buy-in, I’m more likely to stay vs if I’ve had to re-buy a couple of times.
“Whaaat?” I hear you cry, “You’re £300 up, get outta Dodge!”
But, I think it’s more OK to gamble with £400, if the original investment is £100 than if I am in for say £300. Let’s imagine the last hand of the evening is a coin flip, all-in pot against one player. I play Pot limit Omaha, a game where this is a common set-up. If I get unlucky I’m heading home only £100 down, whereas, if it’s my day, I’m heading home with £800. 50% of the time I’m -£100, 50% of the time, I’m +£700. That’s pretty decent odds.
A rule I try to apply is this “After three buy-ins, to get back to even is enough.” This will seem overly cautious for many players but the games I play tend to be quite large for my bankroll so, having been in for three buy-ins, a recovery has to stand as a good result. It’s a hard rule to follow though.
How is the game?
Choice of game again! A game that ticked all the boxes at 5pm might be horrible at midnight. Things I try to look out for include:
Has the makeup of the game changed? If the two fish at the table have been replaced by pros, it’s time to go. (This is so obvious, I hesitate to write it down, but it’s something we recreational players often forget)
Where is the money? If a couple of really good players have built massive stacks, it might be time to leave. Paradoxically I’m happier to play with a short stack than a medium one in this spot. With a short stack, decisions are easy and there are many favourable all-in opportunities in Omaha. With a medium stack against a big one the decisions are more difficult. “If I call this bet on the turn, what am I going to do on the river?” Those kind of decisions.
On the other hand, if a loose, bad player has lucked his way into some chips, then it’s worth staying and looking for a spot to get my share of them!
How am I feeling?
Tired or wide awake? Confident or nervous? Do my decisions seem easy or difficult? Am I calm or agitated?
I’ve done some psychoanalysis, and it offers useful ways to think about this stuff. Transactional Analysis, for example, gives us three ego states: Parent, Adult, and Child.
To go on tilt is to let the sullen child take over how you present yourself to the table:
“I’ve lost a big pot and now I’m going to smash everything up just so you all know how cross I am!” yells the child.
We’ve all been there.
When my adult is strong, I’m treating players as equals, showing and expecting respect though not diffidence.
But to play strong, aggressive poker is to project my inner parent. My big raise, made with confidence and commitment, demands your acquiescence. I will project no hint of weakness, just a calm assertion of my absolute right, as the parent at the table, to take down the pot.
So, at one in the morning, being nicely ahead, when my child is in charge I should leave immediately, my adult should think about banking a nice win soon, but my parent should boss the table for another hour or so!
Self knowledge, as in much of life, is the key.
So last night…
So last night, now I think about it clearly, all these indicators were showing red when, at 11pm, having been playing since 1pm, I made a conscious decision to stay.
I was three buy-ins deep and had recovered to a nice win.
I’d rather brutally cleaned out the one player at the table I’d been dominating and he had just left.
I’d just lost the first pot for a while through a bad read of my opponent’s hand, and my inner child was wailing about it.
Yet, because it’s hard to be either analytical or self away after ten hours of poker, I stayed and lost a few more pots.
To be fair to myself, I did then leave and was, in effect one buy-in down for the night. Not a disaster by any means.
But it could have been so much better.
If I were writing a poker blog for poker players, I wouldn’t think twice about this, but writing about money here feels uncomfortable. It’s like posting pictures of my nice house; “look how well I’m doing,” it seems to say, and who wants to be that person when so many are struggling?
The truth is, I’m lucky enough to have been able to set aside a poker bankroll and keep it in a separate bank account. The games I play generally have buy-ins a bit bigger than this.